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Understanding risk and uncertainty in geospatial research

In the field of geography, understanding sources of uncertainty, particularly uncertainty arising from geographic threats to validity, is critical to conducting valid research. At the core, the main geographic threats to validity are:

  • Boundary/Edge Effects
  • Modifiable Aerial Unit Problem
  • Scale Dependency
  • Spatial Dependency/Autocorrelation
  • Spatial Nonstationarity
  • Spatial Heterogeneity

Across the literature there is agreement that scientific work is enriched rather than hindered by addressing sources of uncertainty in research. Couclelis (2003) demonstrates the pervasiveness of uncertainty in the production process of geographical knowledge, particularly when producing maps which are often interpreted as authoritative. Furthermore, it is critical that geography professors integrate lessons on uncertainty and bias, particularly regarding geographic threats to validity, in core geography curriculum.

In conducting a literature review on pedagogical methods of teaching open science (OS) at the undergraduate level, many integral elements to teaching OS involve developing research practices that assist with identifying and reducing sources of bias and geographic uncertainty. For example, OS promotes pre-registering research projects, compiling replication documentation, utilizing open data, and conducting replication analyses, all of which promote research transparency and serve as checkpoints for researchers to identify potential sources of bias which can be used as a means to reduce geographic uncertainty.

In the field of economics, Underwood et al. (2023) finds that through teaching core principles of open science, undergraduate students are conducting more valid and reproducible research through transparent coding practices and compiling replication documentation. In addition, many open science curriculums include conducting replication analyses of previous research to assess the validity of findings. This pedagogical approach is effective in having students utilize real-world data to identify and critically evaluate sources of uncertainty in published research.

In conclusion, understanding geographic threats to validity are an integral aspect of conducting transparent, effective, and unbiased geospatial research. Furthermore, when teaching geospatial science, geography professors have an ethical obligation to instruct students about core geographic threats to validity in addition to OS principals to ensure that future generations of geographers are able to identify sources of uncertainty, reduce bias, and conduct transparent research. Learning these lessons through OS principals is one effective means to prepare students to work on real-world problems.

Couclelis, H. (2003). The certainty of uncertainty: GIS and the limits of geographic knowledge. Transactions in GIS, 7(2), 165-175. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9671.00138

Underwood, A., Sichel, G., & Marshall, E. (2023) Teaching Reproducible Methods in Economics at Liberal Arts Colleges: A Survey, Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education, https://doi.org/10.1080/26939169.2023.2234425